Political Polls
When looking at polls, don't get too excited about individual polls cited by the talking head on TV. The netowrks and the cable networks have a stake in making each election look like a close race. They love to tout one poll to back up the media narrative for the day. Check out the resources below for sites that give you rolling averages of the polls which provide a more accurate view of the status of a race. Try to put the daily rantings from the talking heads in perspective.
Following the conventions, we're seeing the race settle back into a slight Obama lead on the national level, with a somewhat stronger position when one looks at state polls and the electoral college.
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WEB RESOURCES:
Pollster.com
The pollling averages on this site are even more comprehensive and detailed. It's probably the best resource on the web with useful rolling averages of the polls.
RealClearPolitics.com
This excellent resource collates national and state-by-state
polls in useful tables providing an overview of polls relating to the 2008 elections. The Real Clear Politics poll averages are now regularly cited by news organizations, though the averages at Pollster.com seem to be more comprehensive.
FiftyThirtyEight.com
This excellent site digs into the polling data on a daily basis. If you want to get past the simple averages to learn more about what is going on, check out this site.
Rasmussen
Reports
The daily tracking poll for the
2004 race between Bush and Kerry was a great resource for political
junkies who need to keep up with the horse race. This feature will undoubtedly be popular again in 2008 election.
PollingReport.com
Great summary of latest polls.
ABC
News Polling Unit
Useful site for ABC
News/Washington Post polls. Click here
for their daily presidential tracking poll.
Marist
College Institute for Public Opinion
Well-organized site.
USA Election Polls
This site has drop down menues that make it easier to follow polls in each state.
Gallup
The famous polling organization has an excellent web site.
Zogby
Poll
Well-organized site from this influential pollster. Zogby has taken some heat of late, particularly from bloggers like Kos, for the accuracy of their polls.
North Coast Blog - Polls
Blogging the latest polls.
COMMENTARY:
The pollsters have been taking a beating for their performance so far in the 2008 election. The shocking results in the Democratic primary in New Hampshire prompted many to question the reliability of polls. The polls had Brack Obama surging until the day before the election, but failed to account for the late surge by Hillary Clinton. Also, in South Carolina, the margin of Obama's win was much larger than the polls had suggested.
What went wrong in New Hampshire?
Speculation from ABC News
Comments, questions and suggestions can be sent to Gerardo
Orlando at editor@orlandoreport.com.
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