Presidential Debates: Bush vs. Kerry
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 Credit: Sharon Farmer |
I've believed from the beginning
that the debates would decide this election. So far, Kerry won
the first debate with Bush, giving his campaign a much-needed
boost. Edwards and Cheney seem to have fought to a draw,
though I'm betting that Edwards did better with swing voters.
Cheney at least reenergized Bush's base, so the race will
probably remain a dead heat going into Friday's debate. (Updated
10/6/04 by G. Orlando)
LATEST BUZZ:
10/14/04
ANDREW ON
MARY: Andrew Sullivan
weighs in on the Mary
Cheney debate. Andrew defends Kerry's reference to
Cheney's gay daughter in last night's debate.
POLL RESULTS: So far,
the snap polls favor Kerry on this last debate. CNN
has Kerry winning, 53%-39%. CBS
also has Kerry winning, 39%-25% with 36% undecided. The ABC
poll has it as a tie, but the sample is tilted to
Republican voters. Reactions from pundits are posted on our debate
page.
10/13/04
A DRAW . . .
AGAIN, BUT KERRY SCORES AGAIN WITH SWING VOTERS:
Like the second debate, both men did a good job, particularly
on style. On substance, again I think Kerry did a better job
of speaking to the swing voters. Bush landed some blows as he
tried to paint Kerry as an extremist. His best line was his
reference to Kerry's vote against using force against Saddam
in 1991. He put Kerry on the defensive through parts of the
debate with attacks on his health and spending plans, but
Kerry handled most of them well. Kerry's "Tony
Soprano" line played well. Kerry was at his best on
issues like the minimum wage and assault weapons, while Bush
ducked both issues. Kerry also spoke eloquently about topics
like religion and family, and he probably made himself more
"likeable" to many voters (despite his Mary Cheney
remark). He showed empathy, in contrast to some of his past
performances. The Bush spinners seem happy, but I think the
momentum will stay with Kerry.
10/9/04
SPLIT
DECISION: The ABC
News insta-poll has Kerry winning the debate by a slim
margin, 44-41, with 13 percent calling it a tie.
10/8/04
INITIAL
REACTION - A DRAW: In
the second
debate between Kerry
and Bush, my
initial reaction is that they fought to a draw. Both
candidates were very tough and made some effective arguments,
though both of them had weak moments as well. Bush benefits by
improving on his lame performance in the first debate, which
should re-energize his base. He was full of energy and he
remained on the attack throughout the debate. That said, he
was at times a little hyper and out of control, and he added
to his long list of "Bushisms." His reference to
"Internets" was priceless, and his reference to the
Dred Scott decision from the 19th century was hilarious. Good
thing we don't have to worry about Bush appointing justices
who support slavery. Kerry built upon last week's strong
performance. I thought he scored
repeatedly during the domestic portion of the debate, though
he could have done better on the stem cell question. He was
also very effective in pointing out statements Bush made in
the debates four years ago that contradict his current
positions. He looked presidential again, and like Edwards, I
think he did a better job of speaking to the swing voters.
10/5/04
CBS POLL:
Their poll
of independent voters gives the edge to Edwards. Their sample
also decided that Edwards was more likeable. Surprisingly, Andrew
Sullivan thought Edwards crushed Cheney.
VP DEBATE - INITIAL REACTION:
I thought both Cheney
and Edwards landed
some blows in tonight's debate. Overall, I think it was even,
though many of the pundits on MSNBC seem to be saying that
Cheney won the debate. Cheney certainly attacked Edwards, but
Edwards was tough as well. His strongest points were Cheney's
dealings with Iran when he was CEO of Halliburton and his
reference to Cheney's old votes in Congress when he voted
against Head Start, he voted against the Department of
Education, he voted against meals on wheels for seniors and he
voted against a resolution calling for the release of Nelson
Mandela. Cheney also said during the debate that he never
tried to link Saddam to 9/11, which is basically a lie (MSNBC
showed the footage of his old statements on Meet the Press).
Finally, his tone with Edwards was very condescending,
including his remark that he had never met Edwards before
tonight's debate, a point which Edwards is already
contradicting. Apparently they sat next to each other at a
dinner three years ago.
9/30/04
GAME ON:
Kerry scored a clear win in tonight's debate. He
was presidential and in command of the facts. Bush
was inarticulate and ineffective. It certainly
wasn't a knockout blow, but Kerry is back in this
race.
On style, it was no contest. Howard Fineman had a
great line tonight on MSNBC when he said that Bush
had 30 minutes of material for a 90 minute
debate. Bush repeated himself constantly and he
looked terrible on the split screen when Kerry was
speaking.
As for substance, both candidates certainly made
some good points. Kerry, however, helped himself
tremendously with his emphasis on homeland
security and nuclear proliferation. He asserted
common sense positions on these issues and the
president did not have good responses. He showed
that he can make us safe, and that alone may win
him the election. (G.
Orlando)
RESOURCES:
Latest
Polls
Get the latest polls on the race between Kerry and
Bush.
Transcripts - First
Debate-Miami, VP
Debate-Cleveland, Second
Debate-St. Louis
Commentary:
Howard
Kurtz summarizes media
reactions to the final debate. He also points out how the
pundits on Fox all concluded that Bush won big, even though
most pundits scored it a draw and the insta-polls favored
Kerry.
William Saletan argues that Kerry rebounded from the
second debate and hit
a grand slam in the final debate. Chris Suellentrop
argues that Bush's
gaffe regarding Osama bin Laden will hurt him.
Fred Barnes argues that Bush
won the third debate.
In round three, Tom Shales says that Bush
grins, spins but doesn't win. Tom Curry says neither
candidate scored a knock-out blow. Dick Morris also
calls it a draw, with the advantage
to Kerry because of the emphasis on domestic issues.
Jonathan
Alter explains that Bush needs to try a slice
of humble pie.
Andrew
Sullivan scores the debate a
draw but with a slight edge to Kerry.
William Saletan points out the many
missed opportunities for Kerry in the second debate. Dick
Morris argues that Bush
got himself back in the race with a strong performance.
Mort Kondracke
examines the extent to which the first
debate and the VP debate have changed
the race.
William Saletan argues that, by focusing on what
independent voters wanted to hear, John
Edwards cleaned Dick Cheney's clock in the VP debate. Fred
Kaplan thought there were many missed
opportunities for Edwards.
Walter Shapiro gives an overview of the contentious
debate between Cheney and Edwards.
Fred Barnes argues
that Cheney won and set up Bush for the next debate. Dick
Morris argues that Edwards
looked more like Dan Quayle than John F. Kennedy. Paul
Boas agrees.
Scot Lehigh argues that the VP
debate was a tie. David
Corn agrees.
Tom Shales argues that Cheney turned up the heat in the VP
debate but Edwards
held his own against the assault.
Mort Kondracke argues that Kerry
won the first debate and that he's still alive in this
race.
David Broder explains how Bush
failed in the first debate to deal with the main threat to his
presidency - the insurgency in Iraq that contradicts his
optimistic statements about Iraq.
E.J. Dionne, Jr. explains why Democrats
have reason to smile after Kerry's
performance in the
first debate.
The Boston Globe argues that Kerry
turned things around in the first debate.
Debra Saunders argues Bush
won the first debate. Charlie Cook agrees,
though he acknowledges he's in the minority on this point.
LATEST NEWS:
Bush's
cartoon fails to show up (WP)
Cheney
met Edwards at least three times despite his statements during the
debate (ABC)
War,
aftermath dominate VP debate (MSNBC)
VP
candidates play to the voters (WP)
Edwards/Cheney debate takes on new importance
(WP)
QUICKTAKES:
10/4/04
STATING
THE OBVIOUS:
Joe Klein explains that
we finally have a real race. Andrew Sullivan
summarizes
how Kerry won the first debate.
CANDIDATE PROFILES:
George
W. Bush
John Kerry
Ralph Nader
Comments, questions and suggestions can be sent to Gerardo
Orlando at editor@orlandoreport.com.
Back to The Orlando Report home page.